How to Read a Market

Every market page is built the same way. Once you know the parts, you can size up any market in under a minute.

Is the average DoorDash order shrinking this month?

YES $0.41    /    NO $0.59
[██████░░░░░░░░░]
$259 VOL.    /    12 Days Left.
Phase 1 (Early Pool)

• Title / subtitle. The question, in plain English.
• Outcomes and prices. Each side's price between $0.00 and $1.00, which is also its implied probability. Read it as a probability, not a stock quote: YES at $0.41 means the market puts the odds at 41%.
• Context. Two to four sentences on why this market exists right now. Found within individual market pages.
• Window. Open, close, resolve, plus cadence.
• Phase. Phase 1 (Early Pool) or Phase 2 (Open Market). This determines whether you can exit before resolution.

The rules section, always in this order

• Market window. Exactly when it opens, closes, and resolves. Time zone is always ET.
• Definitions & Scope. Which merchants or groups are in. Any exclusions or methodology notes. Where a metric measures only part of an audience, it is stated plainly here (for example, "subscribers" counts paying subscribers only; free sign-ups are not visible to transaction data). If the market resolves on a group, the group is defined here; click the group tag to see the full merchant list.
• Resolution Method. How the winner is decided, in precise language (always ≥, ≤, >, <, or "exactly"), including how ties are handled.
• Data Source. Where the resolution data comes from. Points to Revere, always. See Data & Revere.

Before you trade, check four things: Do you understand the metric? What's included? The window? Is it Phase 1 or Phase 2?