# Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com. ## Querying This Documentation This site has an agentic ask interface you may use to query the documentation dynamically by asking a question. Perform an HTTP GET request on the following URL with the `ask` and `goal` query parameters: ``` GET https://docs.spend.market/index.md?ask=&goal= ``` `ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language. `goal` is what the user is ultimately trying to achieve, the reason they need the answer. Sharing it helps GitBook give you a better, more relevant answer. A goal is most helpful when it describes the outcome the user wants rather than restating the question. For example, with `ask=how do I create an API token`, a goal like `automate deployments from our CI pipeline` lets GitBook tailor the answer to that use case. The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation. --- # Overview Every prediction market answers a question. The difference is how the answer gets decided. Most markets settle on an oracle reading the news: a headline, a filing, an analyst's model, somebody's published statement. Spend Market settles on the thing itself: what people actually bought. A market about Starbucks resolves on Starbucks transactions. A market about whether DoorDash orders are shrinking resolves on DoorDash orders. No interpretation, no proxy, no waiting for a press release to characterize an economic event that already happened. > **The truth is the transaction.** [Spend Market](https://spend.market/markets) is a prediction market that resolves on verified U.S. consumer transaction data. You take a position on what American consumers will do, and real purchase data decides whether you were right. Not headlines. Not quarterly reports. What happened at the register. > **The receipt is the oracle.** *** *Spend Market is operated by* [*American Spend, Inc*](https://www.americanspend.com/)*.* # What can you do on Spend Market? **Trade real brand performance.** Starbucks vs. Dunkin'. Chipotle vs. Cava. Amazon vs. Walmart. Direct, head-to-head, settled on real sales figures. **Get exposure to private companies.** Trader Joe's. Erewhon. Chick-fil-A. Brands with no ticker, that you can't touch in any other market. On Spend, they're priced. **Trade adoption.** Who's actually winning the subscriber race, ChatGPT vs. Claude, one streaming service against the rest. Settled on how many people are really paying, not how many sign-ups got announced. **Take a macro view.** Trade the theme, not just the brand. Be early to changing conditions: a GLP-1 wave bleeding into fast food and pharmacy, a fuel-price spike landing on the average gas-station ticket. **Hedge your own behavior.** Spend heavily in a category? Get paid when it grows. Go long the subscriptions group, and if its spending climbs, your position gains offset what you're paying every month. Same logic for the daily coffee run or the grocery bill that keeps creeping up: price the habit you can't shake and let it pay you back. Of course, no guarantees. **Short the category itself.** Including, if you like, a position on whether prediction markets outgrow sportsbook platforms. Trading prediction markets, on a prediction market. Meta is allowed. # New Here? Getting started takes about a minute. Sign in with your email, and everything technical is handled for you in the background. There's nothing to set up and nothing to learn first. Pick a market, take your position, and you're trading. New accounts can earn promo credit before they ever deposit. To start, head over to [Getting Started](/getting-started/overview). # Overview Four steps to your first position. 1. **Create an account.** Sign in with email, a social account, or connect an external wallet. 2. **Earn promo credit.** Refer a friend or connect a bank account to earn promo credit and trade before depositing a dollar. See [Ways to Earn](/getting-started/ways-to-earn). 3. **Connect a bank account.** Optional. Connected accounts earn additional promo credit. 4. **Fund your account.** Deposit USDC on Arbitrum to trade beyond your promo balance. Start with [Creating an Account](/getting-started/creating-an-account). # Ways to Earn Spend Market has two onboarding programs that put promo balance in your account. They're separate, and you can stack them. > **Promo balance, in one line:** it's display credit you trade with on Spend Market, not cash. You can't transfer it or withdraw it directly. But anything you win trading with it is real, and real winnings are yours to withdraw anytime. Promo is how you get in the game; winnings are how you cash out. 1. **Connect a bank.** Link a bank account and earn $5 in promo credit. Optional, never required to trade, and a separate program from referrals. See [Connecting a Bank Account (Optional)](/getting-started/connecting-a-bank-account-optional). 2. **Refer a friend.** When a friend signs up with your code and trades $5 or more (non-promo), you both earn $5 in promo credit. See [Referrals](/getting-started/referrals). # Referrals Invite friends, and when they trade $5, you both get $5 promo credit. ### How it works * **Share your code.** Every account gets a unique 8-character invite code (e.g., ABC123XY). Find it on the Earn tab or your Invites page. Share the code directly, or send your invite link: `spend.market/invite/ABC123XY`. * **Your friend signs up.** When they use your link or enter your code at signup, the code applies automatically and the referral shows as pending in your account. * **Your friend trades $5 or more.** Once they deposit and trade a total of $5 or more in USDC, the referral qualifies. Deposits are cumulative, there's no time limit, and a connected bank or an onchain deposit both count toward it. * **You both earn.** When the referral qualifies, you each receive $5 in promo credit. ### The details * Promo earned from referrals is capped at $500 per person, lifetime, across all referrals. After the cap, you can keep referring, but no additional promo is awarded. * Only deposits made after your friend uses your code count toward the $5. * A friend is locked to the first referrer whose code they use; a second code won't apply. * You can't refer yourself. Attempting to do so will result in a permanent ban. * Codes don't expire, can be shared with unlimited people, and each new account that uses your code counts as one referral. * Codes apply only during signup, never retroactively to an existing account. # Creating an Account Spend Market uses Privy for sign-in. Three ways in, same result: a non-custodial wallet that's yours. **Email.** Enter your email, get a one-time code. Privy provisions an embedded wallet tied to your login. You never touch a seed phrase. **Social.** Sign in with Google, Apple, or another supported provider. Same embedded wallet, same experience. **External wallet.** Already hold crypto? Connect MetaMask, Rabby, Coinbase Wallet, WalletConnect, or a hardware wallet and trade from the wallet you already have. > **Which should I pick?** New to crypto? email or social, and the embedded wallet handles everything. Already holding? connect your own wallet. Next: Fund your account, optionally connect a bank, and start trading. See [Custody](/custody-and-eligibility/custody) for how your funds are held. # Funding Your Account Positions on Spend Market are denominated in USDC, a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar. Deposits and withdrawals run on Arbitrum. Most new accounts won't need to deposit right away. If you've earned promo credit, funding is something you do when you're ready to trade beyond it. Every account has a deposit address, where you send USDC to fund it. If you used email or social sign-in: find it in account settings. If you connected your own wallet: it's that address. If you already hold USDC, send it to your Spend Market address on Arbitrum. Confirm the network before sending. If you don't, you can buy USDC directly in the app through Privy. No exchange account needed. **Gas.** Network fees are covered for you. You only ever need USDC to trade, nothing else. **Withdrawing.** Your funds and positions are yours. Withdraw USDC to any Arbitrum address at any time. The only balance you can't move is collateral locked in an active Phase 1 pool. See [Phase 1: Early Pool](/markets/elastic-markets/phase-1-early-pool). **Minimums.** Minimum deposit: $1. Minimum position: $1. # Connecting a Bank Account (Optional) Connecting a bank is optional and never required to trade. Connect one and we'll add $5 in promo credit to your account. This is a separate program from referrals. **Why connect.** Beyond the $5 promo credit, linking a bank account or card contributes to the American Spend Graph and helps power the data that Spend Markets resolve on. The more the panel sees, the sharper every market gets. **How it works.** Spend Market uses Plaid, the same infrastructure behind Venmo, Robinhood, and most major U.S. fintech apps. Click Connect Bank in settings, pick your institution, log in through Plaid's secure flow, and authorize. Spend Market never sees your bank credentials. **What we see when you connect:** anonymized transaction records (merchant, amount, timestamp, category) and account balances. **What we never see:** your bank login, your identity, or anything from accounts you didn't connect. Data is always anonymized and aggregated before it touches any market. See [Privacy & Data Handling](/data-and-revere/privacy-and-data-handling). **Can I disconnect?** Anytime. Disconnecting stops future data flow. Your promo credit and your balance are unaffected. # Placing Your First Position You've created and funded an account. Here's how to place a position. * **Browse markets.** Markets are organized by sector (Food & Beverage, Retail, Travel, Technology, and more), then by group. Filter by cadence: weekly, monthly, quarterly, event. * **Pick an outcome.** Each outcome has a price between $0.00 and $1.00, its implied probability of resolving YES. An outcome at $0.65 means the market prices a 65% chance. Buy it for $0.65; if it wins, each token redeems for $1.00; if it loses, it's worth $0.00. * **Size your position.** Enter the dollars you want to commit. The interface shows the tokens you'll have, your potential payout, and your cost basis. In Phase 1 (Early Pool), your final payout depends on the final pool ratios at resolution, not the price when you bought. See [Phase 1: Early Pool](/markets/elastic-markets/phase-1-early-pool). * **Confirm.** Enter the amount and click "Buy." We automatically approve the transaction for you and your position appears in your portfolio immediately. * **Watch it play out.** In Phase 1 (Early Pool), your collateral is locked until the market resolves or graduates. If the market graduates to Phase 2 (Open Market), you can sell anytime. See [How to Read a Market](/markets/how-to-read-a-market). # Overview Every market on Spend Market is a question about U.S. consumer spending, settled on verified transaction data. Markets come in three types, resolve on one of four metrics, run on four cadences, and organize under sectors and groups. The following pages cover each. # Market Types Three types. The type tells you what kind of question is being asked. The three market types are: 1. [Versus](/markets/market-types/versus) 2. [Target](/markets/market-types/target) 3. [Ranking](/markets/market-types/ranking) > Versus is about direct competition. Target is about crossing a line. Ranking is about order across a set. All three can run at any cadence and resolve on any of the four metrics. # Versus Two brands or groups, head-to-head. Used when the question is relative performance. * **STARBUCKS VS. DUNKIN'** — Which chain rings up more transactions this week? * **NIKE VS. ADIDAS** — Which brand grows faster this month? * **AMAZON VS. WALMART** — Who has higher aggregate spend this quarter? # Target One brand or group clears or misses a stated bar. Used when the question is whether something crosses a line. * **CHICK-FIL-A GROWTH** — Will transaction count grow more than 5% in February? * **THE DOORDASH DIET** — Is the average DoorDash order shrinking this month? * **SUMMER TRAVEL SURGE** — Will travel spending grow 25% or more in June vs. May? # Ranking Three or more options compete for the top spot. Used when the question is order across a field. * **FAST CASUAL OF THE QUARTER** — Which grows fastest: Chipotle, Cava, or Sweetgreen? * **STREAMING WARS** — Which adds the most subscribers: Netflix, Disney+, Hulu, or Max? # Resolution Metrics Every market resolves on exactly one of four metrics, always stated on the market page. They exist because different economic questions need different lenses. A 10% rise in spend could mean more people showed up, the same people spent more per visit, or prices moved. Four metrics let you isolate which. The four resolution metrics are: 1. [Transaction Count](/markets/resolution-metrics/transaction-count) 2. [Unique Purchasers](/markets/resolution-metrics/unique-purchasers) 3. [Aggregate Spend](/markets/resolution-metrics/aggregate-spend) 4. [Average Transaction Value (ATV)](/markets/resolution-metrics/average-transaction-value-atv) > Consumer-facing language follows the group: "subscribers" for AI and streaming, "members" for gyms, "participants" for events, "customers" for retail. The rules are always specific. ATV runs cleanly in merchant-vs-merchant matchups; in Target format it can also run on a single group. All relevant market definitions can be found within each market's description. # Transaction Count How many purchases were made during the window. Captures frequency. Best for habit-driven merchants where repeat visits matter: coffee, fast food, convenience. > *Will Starbucks have more transactions than Dunkin' this week?* # Unique Purchasers How many distinct people bought at least once. Captures reach. Best for adoption: streaming, AI tools, launches, subscriptions, event spending. > *How many unique subscribers will ChatGPT add this month?* # Aggregate Spend Total dollar volume across all qualifying transactions. Captures throughput. Best for macro comparisons, wallet share, group-level questions. > *Will travel spending grow 25% or more in June vs. May?* # Average Transaction Value (ATV) Aggregate Spend divided by Transaction Count. The average size of a single purchase. Captures what's happening at the register per visit: pricing power, trade-down, menu inflation, order sizing. Best for behavioral shifts the other three miss. > *Is the average gas ticket rising this month?* # Market Cadences Every market has a defined window. Spend Market runs four cadences, and each rewards a different kind of insight. The four market cadences are: 1. [Weekly](/markets/market-cadences/weekly) 2. [Monthly](/markets/market-cadences/monthly) 3. [Quarterly](/markets/market-cadences/quarterly) 4. [Event](/markets/market-cadences/event) > Pick markets that match the timeframe you actually have a view on. # Weekly Opens and closes inside a calendar week. Best for habit-driven behavior: coffee, fast food, convenience. Rewards attention. # Monthly Start of month to month-end. Best for group trends, brand-level performance, subscriptions. Rewards pattern recognition. # Quarterly Start of quarter to quarter-end. Best for structural trends that need time to play out. Rewards macro views. # Event Tied to a moment: Super Bowl, March Madness, Black Friday, Prime Day, holiday shopping. The window is defined by the event. Rewards being right about that moment. # How to Read a Market Every market page is built the same way. Once you know the parts, you can size up any market in under a minute. ``` Is the average DoorDash order shrinking this month? YES $0.41 / NO $0.59 [██████░░░░░░░░░] $259 VOL. / 12 Days Left. Phase 1 (Early Pool) ``` * **Title / subtitle.** The question, in plain English. * **Outcomes and prices.** Each side's price between $0.00 and $1.00, which is also its implied probability. Read it as a probability, not a stock quote: YES at $0.41 means the market puts the odds at 41%. * **Context.** Two to four sentences on why this market exists right now. Found within individual market pages. * **Window.** Open, close, resolve, plus cadence. * **Phase.** Phase 1 (Early Pool) or Phase 2 (Open Market). This determines whether you can exit before resolution. ### The rules section, always in this order * **Market window.** Exactly when it opens, closes, and resolves. Time zone is always ET. * **Definitions & Scope.** Which merchants or groups are in. Any exclusions or methodology notes. Where a metric measures only part of an audience, it is stated plainly here (for example, "subscribers" counts paying subscribers only; free sign-ups are not visible to transaction data). If the market resolves on a group, the group is defined here; click the group tag to see the full merchant list. * **Resolution Method.** How the winner is decided, in precise language (always ≥, ≤, >, <, or "exactly"), including how ties are handled. * **Data Source.** Where the resolution data comes from. Points to Revere, always. See [Data & Revere](/data-and-revere/overview). > Before you trade, check four things: Do you understand the metric? What's included? The window? Is it Phase 1 or Phase 2? # Browsing by Group Spend Market organizes every market under sectors and groups. Browse top-down or search straight to a name. ### Sector → Group → Merchant * **Sector.** The broadest grouping, and rigidly defined. Food & Beverage. Retail & Commerce. Travel & Hospitality. Technology & Software. Transportation & Mobility. Financial Services & Wagering. Entertainment & Recreation. Health & Wellness. * **Group.** A flexible set of merchants you can trade as one. A group can sit inside a single sector or span several to capture a macro spending behavior. e.g. "Fast Food," "Premium Coffee" (Blue Bottle, Stumptown, Philz), "AI Tooling" (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Cursor), "Big Box," "Essentials" (grocery, gas, pharmacy). * **Merchant.** The leaf. A single brand. The taxonomy defines which markets exist and how they relate. A Versus between two merchants in the same group is a clean competitive read. A Target on a group that spans sectors is a macro position. A Ranking across a group is a competitive set. Pick the granularity that matches your view. # Elastic Markets Spend Market run on a two-phase lifecycle we call "Elastic Markets." Every market opens as a parimutuel pool, and if it draws enough capital, it graduates to a full order book. On the Spend Market site these two phases appear simply as *Early Pool* and *Open Market*; this handbook prefixes them with Phase 1 and Phase 2 for clarity. * **Phase 1: Early Pool.** A parimutuel pool. You buy outcome tokens against a shared pot; prices are implied by the ratio of capital across outcomes; collateral is locked until the market resolves or graduates. * **Phase 2: Open Market.** When the pool clears a threshold, the market graduates to a central limit order book (CLOB) and trades like a standard exchange: limit orders, market orders, exit anytime. The structure follows the interest. Markets that earn volume grow a real book; markets that don't resolve straight from the pool. Both are by design. The system adapts to the demand each market actually attracts. Phase 1 is for conviction. Phase 2 is for exits and precision. # Phase 1: Early Pool Every market opens here. Everyone contributes to a shared pot, and when the outcome lands, winners split it in proportion to what they put in. **How pricing works.** Price is implied by the pool ratio. If 70% of the collateral sits on YES, YES costs $0.70 and NO costs $0.30. Prices always sum to $1.00. Every position shifts the pool, which shifts the price: buy YES, and YES gets more expensive while NO gets cheaper. > **Example.** YES opens with $7,000 committed, NO with $3,000, so YES is priced at $0.70. You commit $700 to YES. By close, more capital has come in: $9,000 on YES, $4,000 on NO, a $13,000 pot. YES resolves true. The winning side splits the whole pot in proportion to stake. Your $700 is 7.8% of the $9,000 YES side, so you take 7.8% of the $13,000 pot, about $1,011 gross. The 1% net-profit fee applies only to your winnings: your profit is $1,011 minus your $700 stake, or $311, so the fee is about $3. See [Fees](/markets/fees). That leaves about $1,008 net on a $700 stake. **Locked collateral.** Once you commit, your capital is locked until the market resolves (payouts go to winners) or graduates (your position becomes tradable on the book). If you want the ability to exit early, trade in Phase 2 markets. Phase 1 is for conviction positions. **Yield on locked capital.** While locked, your collateral earns yield. Pooled capital is routed into an ERC-4626 yield vault provided and secured by Morpho. Your share of accrued yield is tracked from your entry and passed through to you in full, pro-rata, at whichever comes first: resolution or graduation. **Early-buyer tiering.** A small tiered entry fee applies to pool entries, stepping up as the pool fills. The pool is split into four equal tranches by collateral: the first pays 0.5%, then 1.0%, 1.5%, and 2.0% for the last. Early buyers pay the least; later entries pay progressively more. The fee accrues to a small seed fund deployed at graduation. See [Graduation & Complete Sets](/markets/graduation-and-complete-sets). **At resolution from the pool:** winning tokens redeem their proportional share of the pool; losing tokens redeem for $0; ties refund in full. Your net payout is your share of the pool, less the 1% net-profit fee on your winnings (see [Fees](/markets/fees)). # Phase 2: Open Market When a market graduates, it becomes a full central limit order book (CLOB) and trades like an exchange. **Yield keeps running.** Graduating to Open Market doesn't pause your yield. Any USDC you're holding — your available balance, and the cash reserved behind a resting limit order that hasn't filled — stays in the vault and keeps earning, passed through to you. Your capital works even while it waits at your price. **What changes at graduation:** the pool freezes, your Phase 1 position becomes a tradable balance of outcome tokens, and an order book opens with resting buy and sell orders. ### How trading works * **Limit orders** rest on the book at your price until taken or canceled. They add liquidity; limit orders are "makers." * **Market orders** take the best available price and fill immediately. They consume liquidity; market orders are "takers." * **Price-time priority.** At the same price, the earliest order fills first. Why it matters: you can exit early (up 40%? sell and lock in profits), be precise (rest a limit bid at your number and let the market come to you), and layer in across price points. Makers earn a rebate per fill; takers pay a fee per fill. See [Fees](/markets/fees). The book is anchored by the complete sets mechanism, which keeps outcome prices summing to \~$1.00. See [Graduation & Complete Sets](/markets/graduation-and-complete-sets). **At resolution:** winning tokens redeem for $1.00 each, with the 1% net-profit fee applied only to your winnings; losing tokens go to zero; ties are refunded in full. # Graduation & Complete Sets Graduation is the moment a market crosses from pool to book. **When it happens.** Automatically, when total pool collateral reaches the $10,000 graduation threshold. A market that never hits it stays in Phase 1 until resolution. ### What happens * **The pool freezes.** No new pool entries. Your Phase 1 stake becomes a balance of outcome tokens you own outright. * **The yield vault redeems.** Principal returns to the market, and accrued yield is passed through to Phase 1 participants in full, pro-rata by entry timing, with no clawback. * **The seed fund seeds the book.** Capital from Phase 1 entry fees is deployed to provide initial liquidity. * **Trading opens.** Anyone can place orders. > **Example.** You committed $700 to YES at an implied $0.70 in Phase 1, so 1,000 YES tokens. At graduation those 1,000 tokens are yours outright and tradable, plus your share of vault yield since entry. Now you can sell into the book at the going price, place a limit order at your number, or hold to resolution for $1.00 per token. # Complete Sets A complete set is one of every outcome token: in a binary market, 1 YES + 1 NO. A set can always be minted (deposit $1.00, receive one of each) or burned (return one of each, receive $1.00). This creates a hard price anchor. **Why prices stay honest.** Say YES is trading at $0.70 and NO at $0.35, so the pieces sum to $1.05. Anyone can mint a set for $1.00, sell the two tokens for $1.05, and pocket the spread; the selling pressure drags the prices back toward summing to $1.00. The same logic runs the other direction. You don't have to trust that the numbers add up. The mechanism enforces it. **Resolution delay.** A market can't resolve the instant it closes, since not every transaction in the window has settled yet. To capture the full picture, there is a 48-hour delay from market close to resolution and payout. # How Markets Resolve When a market's window closes: * **Window closes.** No new positions. In Phase 2, the order book freezes. * ***Revere***** computes the result.** Spend Market's oracle produces the value for the market's chosen metric over its window. See [Data & Revere](/data-and-revere/overview). * **Resolution.** The market resolves to the winning outcome per the rules printed on its page. Markets are reviewed and resolved by the Spend Market team at launch. * **Payouts.** Winning tokens redeem for $1.00 each, with the 1% net-profit fee applied only to your winnings (see [Fees](/markets/fees)); losing tokens go to zero. Payouts typically complete at time of market resolution. **Tie handling.** A tie refunds all positions in full. This covers Versus and Ranking. In Target markets, a result exactly at the threshold resolves on the stated operator (≥ resolves YES; > does not). Every market's rules state the exact operator. **Threshold language.** Spend Market always uses unambiguous operators: ≥, ≤, >, <, or "exactly." Never "approximately," "around," or "about." **Disputes.** If you think a market resolved incorrectly, email within 7 days. The Spend Market team reviews the data against the rules and responds. # Fees Spend Market applies fees in three places. All fees are shown up front before you confirm. **Phase 1, tiered pool entry fee.** A small fee when you buy into a pool, stepping up as the pool fills. The pool is split into four equal tranches by collateral: the first pays 0.5%, then 1.0%, 1.5%, and 2.0% for the last. Early buyers pay the least; later entries pay progressively more. The fee accrues to a seed fund deployed at graduation. **Phase 2, maker rebate / taker fee.** Makers (resting orders) earn a 30 bps rebate per fill; takers (orders that consume liquidity) pay a 50 bps fee per fill. Of the taker fee, 30 bps is paid to the maker as the rebate and 20 bps is the net fee retained by Spend Market. Makers never pay to quote. **Net-profit fee.** 1% of your net profit on a winning position: your payout minus what you paid. It applies to profit only, never to your stake and never to a losing position. > **Example. $100 position that resolves YES, 1% net-profit fee.** > > Bought at $0.50 → 200 tokens × $1.00 = $200 gross. Profit is $100, so the fee is $1: $199 net. > > Bought at $0.70 → 143 tokens × $1.00 = $143 gross. Profit is $43, so the fee is about $0.43: about $142.57 net. Your cost basis, gross payout, and net payout are always shown before you confirm. # Overview Every market resolves on verified U.S. consumer transaction data. **What the data is.** Real, anonymized, aggregated consumer card transactions sourced from our institutional-grade data partners. The transactions reflect what people actually bought: where, when, and for how much. **Revere.** *Revere* is Spend Market's oracle. When a market closes, Revere produces the verified result the market settles on. It's a separate product built by American Spend, and all Spend Markets resolve through it. **Why it matters.** Every other prediction market depends on an oracle reading external signals: news, reports, published statements. Spend Markets resolves on the economic event directly. A market about Starbucks transactions resolves on Starbucks transactions. **How do I know the number is right?** The rules name one metric and one window, in literal language with explicit operators. Revere computes that exact value over that exact window. There's nothing to interpret. The data is the data. **Data sufficiency.** Every market requires a minimum of 10,000 qualifying transactions across the panel to resolve. This floor ensures resolution reflects real aggregate behavior, not a thin or noisy sample. If coverage for a merchant or window falls below the threshold, or a data provider has an outage during the window, the market follows a defined fallback order: first, resolve on the available qualifying panel if it still clears the 10,000-transaction minimum; if it doesn't, extend the window to capture sufficient coverage; and if the threshold still can't be met, the market voids and refunds all positions in full. Partial-data delivery is handled the same way: a market resolves only once coverage clears the 10,000-transaction minimum, and voids and refunds if it can't. The specific threshold and any market-specific adjustments are always stated in each market's rules. **Aggregation and anonymization.** All data is aggregated and anonymized before it reaches the market layer. Markets settle on panel-level aggregates, counts and totals, never on any identifiable record. No individual user's transactions ever appear in a resolution. See [Privacy & Data Handling](/data-and-revere/privacy-and-data-handling). # Privacy & Data Handling Spend Market never needs to know who you are to resolve a market. That principle runs through everything below. **We never see your identity.** Bank connections flow through Plaid, which tokenizes your credentials. Spend Market never sees your bank login or account numbers. **Individual transactions never appear in resolutions.** Every market settles on aggregated counts and totals across the full panel. No single user's activity is ever visible in the output. **You control the data.** Disconnect your bank anytime; that stops future data flow. **What we collect when you connect a bank:** anonymized transaction records (merchant, amount, timestamp, category) and account balances. Nothing from accounts you didn't connect. **What we don't do:** we don't sell individual-level data, share identifiable records with participants or third parties, show you other users' activity, or combine transaction data with personal identifiers for advertising or external analytics. **Retention.** While connected, data supports market resolution and your promo rewards. After disconnection, your identified account link is removed. To request deletion, email . **Security.** Spend Market protects user data with controls aligned to industry standards. All data is encrypted in transit and at rest. Access to systems is restricted, logged, and reviewed, and sensitive operations are governed by least-privilege controls. Bank connections are tokenized through Plaid, so Spend Market never receives your bank credentials, and all transaction data is anonymized and aggregated before it reaches any market. Spend Market is pursuing SOC 2 Type II attestation; our security posture and audit status will be published in our trust center as they're finalized. Our auditor is Prescient Assurance. See the full [Privacy Policy](https://spend.market/privacy) for binding terms. # Overview Spend Market handles real money. This section covers how your funds are held and who can use the platform. # Custody Spend Market is non-custodial. We never hold your funds. **Where your money is.** Email or social sign-in: Privy provisioned an embedded wallet tied to your login, and your USDC sits there. External wallet: your USDC stays in your wallet and you sign every transaction. Either way, the keys are yours, the funds are yours, the positions are yours. **Where your positions are.** Outcome tokens are ERC-6909 tokens held in your wallet. ERC-6909 is a multi-token standard: a single contract can hold every outcome token across markets, which is what keeps minting and burning complete sets cheap and efficient. **Spend Market can:** operate the markets, pricing, and resolution infrastructure; process deposits and withdrawals within its own smart contracts; resolve markets per each market's stated rules. **Spend Market cannot:** move funds without a transaction you signed; access your bank credentials (Plaid handles that in a tokenized flow); prevent you from withdrawing your balance; reverse transactions you've signed. **Audits.** Spend Market's contracts have completed two independent audit rounds and were reviewed by six independent security researchers, supplemented by AI-assisted review across several automated tooling suites (including 33 Labs Captain Hook, Pashov Solidity Auditor v3, Plamen, Zellic V12, and Test Machines' Azimuth AI auditor). The intent was to pair human judgment with broad automated coverage. Findings were triaged and remediated where applicable. As with any audit, this work should be understood as meaningful risk reduction rather than a guarantee that no issues exist. Full audit reports will be published and linked here following completion of our in-progress audit, with auditor names and profiles included for anyone who wishes to verify them independently. **Recovering access.** Email or social? Privy provides recovery flows through their documentation; losing both your login and your recovery method means losing that embedded wallet. Visit for further assistance. External wallet? recovery is controlled by your wallet provider. Back up your recovery method. Spend Market cannot restore access you've lost. # Eligibility > This page reflects working assumptions. Final eligibility, KYC, and jurisdictional terms are subject to legal review. **Who can use Spend Market.** Spend Market is available to eligible U.S. residents aged 18 or older, subject to the restrictions below and to the Terms of Service. You must be physically located in a permitted U.S. jurisdiction to trade. **Regulatory status.** Spend Market is building toward operating as a federally regulated event-contract market under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Availability may change as that process advances. **Restricted jurisdictions.** Spend Market is unavailable wherever event-contract trading or USDC is restricted. Two filters apply: * **U.S. state restrictions.** Event-contract trading is restricted in some states, and the regulatory landscape is actively evolving. Spend Market is unavailable to residents of those states. The current list of excluded states is shown at signup and updated as the law develops; material changes are communicated in-app. * **Sanctions.** Spend Market is not available to anyone located in, resident in, or acting on behalf of a person or entity subject to U.S. sanctions, or designated on a U.S. government sanctions list (including OFAC's Specially Designated Nationals list). These are the same restrictions that govern USDC itself. **Identity verification.** Verifying your identity is required to trade. Spend Market asks for a government-issued ID and other information to confirm your identity and eligibility before you trade or withdraw. Verification is handled through a secure provider; requirements may expand based on your activity. **Account rules.** One account per person. No delegated trading. You trade from your own account with your own funds. **Changes.** Eligibility terms may change; material changes are communicated in-app before they take effect. See [Legal](https://spend.market/terms) for binding terms of service. # FAQ
What is Spend Market? A prediction market that resolves on verified U.S. consumer transaction data. You take positions on what American consumers will do; real purchase data decides the outcome.
What network does it run on? Arbitrum. All positions are denominated in USDC.
Do I need to know anything about crypto? No. Sign in with email or social and a non-custodial wallet is provisioned for you. If you already have a wallet, connect that instead.
How do I earn promo credit? Two ways, and they stack: $5 for connecting a bank, and $5 per friend you refer who deposits and trades $5 or more. See [Ways to Earn](/getting-started/ways-to-earn).
Is promo credit real money? Promo is display credit you trade with, not cash. You can't transfer or withdraw it directly. But anything you win trading with it is real, and real winnings are yours to withdraw anytime.
How does the referral program work? Share your invite code. When a friend signs up with it and deposits $5 or more in USDC, you both get $5 in promo credit. Deposits are cumulative and there's no time limit.
Is there a limit on referral rewards? Promo from referrals is capped at $500 per person lifetime. After that you can keep referring, but no further promo is awarded.
Does my friend have to deposit for me to earn? Yes. The referral stays pending until they deposit $5 or more. No deposit, no reward, but it can convert anytime later.
Can I use my own code, or use more than one? No self-referrals, and a friend is locked to the first code they use at signup. Codes apply only during signup, never retroactively.
Do referral codes expire? No. Your code doesn't expire and can be shared with unlimited people.
Do I need to connect a bank account? No. It's optional. Connect one and we'll add $5 in promo credit. It's a separate program from referrals.
How do I fund my account? If you've earned promo credit, you can trade with it first. When you're ready to add more, send USDC to your Spend address on Arbitrum, or buy USDC directly in the app through Privy. See [Funding Your Account](/getting-started/funding-your-account).
What determines a market's price? In Phase 1 (Early Pool), the ratio of capital across outcomes. In Phase 2 (Open Market), whatever trades clear at. Either way, prices sum to \~$1.00.
Can I sell before a market resolves? In Phase 2, yes. In Phase 1, no. Your collateral is locked until resolution or graduation.
Do all markets graduate? No. Markets that don't hit the threshold resolve from Phase 1. By design.
What's a complete set? One of every outcome token, redeemable for $1.00. It keeps the order book's prices summing to \~$1.00. See [Graduation & Complete Sets](/markets/graduation-and-complete-sets).
How is the outcome determined? Through Revere, Spend Market's oracle, against the rules on the market page. See [Data & Revere](/data-and-revere/overview).
How long does resolution take? 48 hours after close.
What happens if a market is tied? All positions refund in full.
What are the fees? A Phase 1 tiered entry fee, a Phase 2 maker rebate / taker fee, and a 1% net-profit fee on winnings. All shown up front. See [Fees](/markets/fees).
Does Spend hold my funds? No. Spend Market is non-custodial; your funds stay in your wallet.
What do you see when I connect my bank? Anonymized transaction records and balances, never your login or identity. See [Privacy & Data Handling](/data-and-revere/privacy-and-data-handling).
Can I disconnect my bank later? Yes, anytime. If you'd already earned a referral reward, disconnecting later doesn't reverse it.
Can I delete my data? Yes. Email .
My deposit didn't arrive. Confirm the network is Arbitrum and that you sent USDC. If it still hasn't landed after network confirmations, email .
I think a market resolved incorrectly. Email within 7 days. We'll review against the rules.
I lost access to my embedded wallet. Privy provides recovery flows. See their recovery documentation.
Still stuck? Email or reach us on X at [@spendmarket](https://x.com/spendmarket).
# Glossary **ATV (Average Transaction Value).** Aggregate Spend divided by Transaction Count; the average size of one purchase. **Aggregate Spend.** Total dollar volume across all qualifying transactions in a window. **Complete set.** One of every outcome token; mintable and burnable for \~$1.00, which anchors order-book prices. **Elastic Markets.** Spend Market's two-phase lifecycle: a market opens as a pool (Phase 1: Early Pool) and graduates to an order book (Phase 2: Open Market) if it hits the threshold. **Embedded wallet.** A non-custodial wallet provisioned for you by Privy when you sign in with email or social. **ERC-4626.** The tokenized vault standard the yield vault is built on. **ERC-6909.** The multi-token standard Spend Market's outcome tokens use. **Graduation.** The automatic transition of a market from Phase 1 (Early Pool) to Phase 2 (Open Market). **Group.** A flexible set of merchants you can trade as one; can sit inside a single sector or span several. **Implied probability.** An outcome's price read as a probability; $0.65 means a 65% chance of resolving YES. **Invite code.** Your unique 8-character referral code. A friend who signs up with it and deposits $5 or more earns you both promo credit. **Maker / Taker.** A maker rests an order on the book and adds liquidity (earns a rebate); a taker consumes liquidity (pays a fee). **Non-custodial.** You hold your own keys and funds; Spend Market can't move them without a transaction you sign. **Parimutuel pool.** Phase 1 structure: everyone contributes to a shared pot and winners split it in proportion to their stake. **Plaid.** The infrastructure that connects your bank in a tokenized flow; Spend Market never sees your credentials. **Privy.** Spend Market's sign-in provider; provisions the embedded wallet. **Promo balance.** Display credit you trade with on Spend Market. Non-transferable and not directly withdrawable; winnings from it are real and withdrawable. Earned through bank connection and referrals. **Net-profit fee.** 1% of net profit on a winning position: your payout minus your cost basis. Charged on profit only, never on stake or losing positions. **Revere.** Spend Market's oracle; produces the verified result each market settles on. **Sector → Group → Merchant.** The hierarchy that organizes every market. Sectors are rigid; groups are flexible and can span sectors. **Sector.** The broadest, rigidly defined grouping of merchants. **Transaction Count.** How many purchases were made during a window. **Unique Purchasers.** How many distinct people made at least one purchase during a window. **USDC.** A stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar; the currency for every position on Spend Market. *** *Spend Market is operated by* [*American Spend*](https://www.americanspend.com/)*, Inc. Truth lives in transactions.*