Overview

Every market resolves on verified U.S. consumer transaction data.

What the data is. Real, anonymized, aggregated consumer card transactions sourced from our institutional-grade data partners. The transactions reflect what people actually bought: where, when, and for how much.

Revere. Revere is Spend Market's oracle. When a market closes, Revere produces the verified result the market settles on. It's a separate product built by American Spend, and all Spend Markets resolve through it.

Why it matters. Every other prediction market depends on an oracle reading external signals: news, reports, published statements. Spend Markets resolves on the economic event directly. A market about Starbucks transactions resolves on Starbucks transactions.

How do I know the number is right? The rules name one metric and one window, in literal language with explicit operators. Revere computes that exact value over that exact window. There's nothing to interpret. The data is the data.

Data sufficiency. Every market requires a minimum of 10,000 qualifying transactions across the panel to resolve. This floor ensures resolution reflects real aggregate behavior, not a thin or noisy sample. If coverage for a merchant or window falls below the threshold, or a data provider has an outage during the window, the market follows a defined fallback order: first, resolve on the available qualifying panel if it still clears the 10,000-transaction minimum; if it doesn't, extend the window to capture sufficient coverage; and if the threshold still can't be met, the market voids and refunds all positions in full. Partial-data delivery is handled the same way: a market resolves only once coverage clears the 10,000-transaction minimum, and voids and refunds if it can't. The specific threshold and any market-specific adjustments are always stated in each market's rules.

Aggregation and anonymization. All data is aggregated and anonymized before it reaches the market layer. Markets settle on panel-level aggregates, counts and totals, never on any identifiable record. No individual user's transactions ever appear in a resolution. See Privacy & Data Handling.